Offense, Defense, and the Causes of Civil War Recurrence: The Effect of External Military Support on Peace Duration
Abstract
Previous literature addressing the phenomenon of civil war recurrence has examined the domestic sources of recurring civil wars, but has not adequately assessed the impact of external military support on civil war recurrence. This project seeks to fill that gap by assessing the impact of external support on the peace duration of post-conflict countries, paying specific attention to the effects of foreign-supplied offensive and defensive military technology. The theory presented in this project was largely inspired by the offense-defense theory (ODT) literature. While traditional ODT is primarily concerned with the technological superiority of offense or defense in the international system, this project examines the availability of externally provided offensive and defensive technologies within a post-conflict country, and the impact of such availability on the durability of peace. Using a series of proportional hazards models, this project finds that the availability of offensive types of support decreases the duration of peace, while the availability of defensive types of support increases the duration of peace. This finding provides a strong case for distinguishing between support that is offensive and defensive.
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